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May 20, 2012

Forex Update 20-05-2012

Here’s an update on what I’ll be looking at this week in the Forex markets. I have marked on the charts key areas where signals might be created.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD this week hit the support level at 1.2640 and bounced nicely on Friday. Major resistance is just above at 1.3000. Looking forward to see what the price does when it hits dynamic resistance from the 8/21 day EMAs. I’ll be looking for selling opportunities at the oval area with the question mark you see in the chart.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is on a nice downtrend at the moment, look at the lower lows and lower highs marked on the chart. The level at 79.60 turned from support to resistance, looking forward to see what happens when price rotates higher to that level, price will also find dynamic resistance from the 8/21 day EMAs at that point. Next support level is just below at 78.40.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD was quite choppy for a couple of months prior to the rally up to 1.6300 level where it hit the top and started moving down aggressively, it is now again in the choppy area so best is to wait until everything is clear. If it rotates higher up to the 1.6000 resistance I’ll possibly be looking for selling signals.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF has been moving aggressively to the upside in the last couple of weeks closing above the resistance (now support) at 0.9300 leaving the consolidation range that formed for a couple of months. I’ll be looking for rotations lower to the 0.9300 and wait there for buying signals. If it keeps moving higher I’ll keep a look at what happens at 0.9600 resistance level.

GOLD

Gold this week bounced off support at $1530.00 and is heading to the next major resistance level at $1630.00. At the moment price is sitting on the EMAs dynamic resistance layer. The big picture shows price ranging between $1800.00 and $1530.00 levels, if next resistance is broken then we can see a move higher up to the top of this range.

SILVER

Silver just like Gold hit a major support level at $26.50 and bounced off nicely. At the moment price is at a level I have marked on my chart but it’s not a major level so I’m not expecting much from it. It current up momentum continues price will hit the 21 EMA dynamic resistance and I’ll be waiting for possible shorting opportunities.

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April 26, 2012

Europa League / Ath Bilbao v Sp Lisbon

Just a quick post after tonight’s Europa League 2nd leg clash between Ath Bilbao and Sporting Lisbon.

I have correctly predicted the first goal of the match for Ath Bilbao and after that I have also correctly predicted the match would end with over 2.5 goals but I walked away with no profits at all. Read on. :D

I had a significant delay in the video images I was receiving for this match, this always makes my life much more difficult but anyway, I clicked to back Ath Bilbao at 1.67 and immediately the market suspended not allowing my order to reach the market because of the inplay delay and some 20 seconds later I saw the goal going in. I kept on analyzing the match and it was clear to me that there would be many more goals in this match. I looked at the over/under 2.5 goals market and the under 2.5 goals was shortening quickly so I layed at 2.00 waiting for the market to fill me. The market reached 2.06 when it suspended because of the equalizing goal.

So, it’s obvious I could have walked away from this match with significant profits but instead I walked away with nothing. These situations believe it or not are very very common and so it’s very important to create some kind of a defense mechanism against the frustration that builds up when you see an opportunity evaporating in front of you. The default response (at least for me) when a situation like this happens is to try and force situations but this is soooooo wrong! Having realized this is helping me quite a lot.

If this ever happened to you, comment below. ;)

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April 24, 2012

Hello World!

So, seems like it’s about time to write my first post since I have set this up for quite a while.

I’m planning on writing pretty much everything that comes to my mind related to sports and financial markets. Expect some good stuff but don’t rule out the possibility of reading a lot of crap. ;)

As you might have noticed already, I’ve uploaded some Excel spreadsheets to the tools page. They are free so might be worth to take a look at but don’t expect them to make you an outright winner, they are some very simple tools that every investor/trader should have. I hope to have some free time to write much better tools than these spreadsheets. If you have any suggestions for some nice tools use the contact page to let me know.

I think that’s all for now, going to get prepared for the Champions League semi-final match tonight, hopefully I’ll be able to snatch some profits out of it.